Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Expected fight flow

Ernesta Kareckaite edges a close, measured fight by maintaining steadier output through the rounds and earns a decision victory. Melissa Gatto has competitive moments but cannot create enough separation to overturn the narrow scorecards.

Ernesta Kareckaite: Ernesta Kareckaite wins because her consistently steady neutral timeline provides the slightly more dependable momentum in an otherwise even matchup.

Melissa Gatto: Melissa Gatto loses a close decision because her equally neutral read offers no clear current edge and she falls just short in the decisive exchanges.

Kareckaite brings the higher striking pace

UFCStats credits Kareckaite with 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute, compared with Gatto’s 3.47. Kareckaite also absorbs 6.47 per minute, so her volume comes with openings for Gatto to counter.

Gatto’s takedown route faces a strong hurdle

Gatto averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes, but her takedown accuracy is 27%; Kareckaite’s takedown defense is listed at 81%. Gatto may need to create scrambles or chain attempts rather than count on easy entries.

Kareckaite has the listed size edge

UFCStats lists Kareckaite at 5'9" with a 71-inch reach, against Gatto at 5'5" with a 69-inch reach. Kareckaite can try to make that height advantage matter by maintaining distance and working behind her kicks.

Both enter after decision defeats

Gatto’s latest bout was a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April, while Kareckaite most recently lost a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin in February. Neither arrives off a stoppage defeat, but each needs a result to halt a recent setback.

Gatto says she feels ready to stay active

In a pre-fight interview, Gatto said she was “feeling great” and hoped to compete a third time in 2026 after this bout. She also described Kareckaite as a good striker with good kicks and range.

Gatto moneyline only at a favorable number

This looks close enough to be price-sensitive: consider Gatto only around -110 or better, and pass if her price drifts to a more expensive favorite. Shop multiple books because the listed market is near pick’em.

Kareckaite by decision as a method prop

A small stake on Kareckaite by decision offers a distinct method angle if you expect her to win rounds without a finish; one listed price is 2.40 decimal (+140). Check the current price before betting.

Gatto by submission as a long-shot flyer

For a small speculative wager, Gatto by submission was listed at 7.00 decimal (+600). Treat it as a high-variance method prop, not a substitute for a measured stake on the main market.