MMA · July 11, 2026

ALESSANDRO COSTA vs CODY DURDEN

Free LineCrush game report for ALESSANDRO COSTA vs CODY DURDEN on July 11, 2026, with matchup analysis and pick ideas generated for the daily slate. Reports can update as lineups, injuries, and odds develop, so confirm time-sensitive details before acting.

Matchup Analysis

Striking battle between accurate flyweights

Alessandro Costa brings a 46% significant striking accuracy and 3.86 strikes landed per minute against Cody Durden’s 44% accuracy and 3.24 SLpM, setting up a technical stand-up battle between orthodox and southpaw stances.

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Wrestling pressure versus elite takedown defense

Durden’s wrestling-heavy style, reflected in his 3.99 takedowns per 15 minutes and 49% takedown accuracy, will test Costa’s elite 86% takedown defense in the clinch and scramble phases.

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Contrasting momentum heading into UFC 329

Costa enters UFC 329 on a two-fight finishing streak in 2026 over Stewart Nicholl and Matt Schnell, while Durden just halted a four-fight skid with a decision win over Jafel Filho, giving this matchup contrasting momentum profiles.

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Late-notice dynamics after Osbourne’s withdrawal

This bout materialized when Ode' Osbourne withdrew injured from UFC 329, allowing Costa to step in as a late-notice replacement for Durden on the July 11 Las Vegas card.

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Durden’s recent damage raises durability questions

Durden’s recent stoppage losses to Jose Ochoa by knockout and Allan Nascimento by anaconda choke raise questions about his durability against Costa’s aggressive offense, even as he remains capable of high-level performances.

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Physical profile favors Durden in height and experience

At 5'7" and 34 years old Durden will enjoy a height and experience edge over the 5'4" 29-year-old Costa, though both share a 67" reach that could neutralize distance advantages in striking exchanges.

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Pick Ideas

Ride market confidence in Costa

With Costa sitting around -230 on the moneyline and prediction markets pricing his win probability near two-thirds, backing the Brazilian as the more favored side aligns with both sportsbooks and trading platforms.

Underdog shot on Durden’s wrestling grind

Durden at roughly +190 offers underdog value for bettors who believe his grinding, wrestling-based approach can slow Costa’s offense and sway judges despite the odds gap.

Over 2.5 rounds for a attritional fight

Given Durden’s recent decision outcomes against Joshua Van and Jafel Filho and Costa’s ability to go three hard rounds versus Steve Erceg, an over 2.5 rounds or fight-goes-distance angle has merit for bettors expecting a drawn-out contest.

Costa by KO/TKO as a focused finishing angle

Costa by KO/TKO is an intriguing prop considering his stoppage wins over Kevin Borjas, Jimmy Flick, and Matt Schnell contrasted with Durden’s recent knockout defeat to Jose Ochoa.

Durden by submission as a long-shot play

For a long-shot angle, Durden by submission leverages his proven finishing grappling, including an anaconda choke of Matt Schnell and multiple submission victories on his record, against a foe whose offensive strengths lean toward striking.