Player Prop Results for August 21, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

On August 21, 2026, LineCrush’s models went 451-461 across 912 graded player props. That’s 451 wins and 461 losses, a slightly negative day overall, graded and posted publicly without spin.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 388-403
• WNBA: 63-58

Biggest Wins

• Jackson Merrill (MLB) — Batter Hits Under 0.50: WIN, actual 0.0. Our analysis called for a goose egg in the hit column and got it exactly, converting an Under that leaves no room for ambiguity.
• Nolan Arenado (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN, actual 1.0. He stayed capped at a single total base, landing neatly below the 1.5 mark.
• Alec Bohm (MLB) — Batter Hits Runs RBIs Over 1.50: WIN, actual 7.0. This cleared with room to spare; stuffing the box score on combined counting stats pushed this well past the threshold.
• Alex Bregman (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: WIN, actual 9.0. A dominant performance in total bases, blowing through 1.5 and underscoring why our model favored the Over.
• Alejandro Kirk (MLB) — Batter Hits Over 0.50: WIN, actual 1.0. A single was all that was required and all that was needed; the Over 0.5 cashed cleanly.

Where We Missed

• Willson Contreras (MLB) — Batter Runs Scored Under: LOSS, actual 1.0. We played the Under on runs, but he crossed the plate once, which is all it takes to beat an Under on runs.
• Isaac Paredes (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: LOSS, actual 2.0. He reached two total bases, clearing the 1.5 line and handing this Under a loss.
• Oneil Cruz (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under: LOSS, actual 4.0. Four total bases made the Under non-competitive here; this one missed decisively.
• Yordan Alvarez (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: LOSS, actual 4.0. Another Under on total bases that didn’t hold; 4.0 TB put this well over the line.
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Under 18.50: LOSS, actual 19.0. We were Under 18.5 outs; he recorded 19, clearing the number by a single out and flipping this to a loss.

What this means: the day finished slightly in the red overall, despite some standout MLB wins. Merrill’s zero hits and Arenado’s held-in-check bases validated a pair of Unders, while Bohm and Bregman smashed their Overs with emphatic stat lines. Kirk’s single delivered a straightforward Over. On the other side, several Unders on total bases didn’t land, and Yamamoto’s one-extra-out margin was enough to tip that pitcher prop against us. The WNBA slate finished positive, while MLB was slightly negative, and together they produced the 451-461 combined outcome.

A few quick takeaways from our analysis:

• Total bases volatility defined both sides of the ledger, driving multiple clear wins and clear losses.
• Margins matter: Yamamoto exceeding 18.5 by exactly one out highlights how thin some pitcher-out lines can run.
• Counting-stat Overs like Bohm’s Hits+Runs+RBIs can create breathing room when a player is involved across categories.

Every pick is graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose. If you tailed these, you can verify each result on our site — nothing hidden, every ticket counted, and every outcome attributed exactly as listed above.

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