NOP at IND: Court Battle

The Pelicans and Pacers meet under the Friday night lights with contrasting tempos and rising stakes. New Orleans has leaned into power and paint dominance, while Indiana keeps the league’s speedometer redlining with a spread-and-shoot attack. Expect a clash of styles: half-court muscle versus transition blur, rim pressure versus rim runs. It’s a January litmus test that could tell us which blueprint travels better as playoff positioning tightens.

The Matchup

Two clear storylines shape this one:

• Pace vs. control: Indiana’s high-possession offense tries to drag New Orleans out of its comfort zone. The Pelicans typically thrive when they can set their defense and pound the interior.
• Shot profile battle: New Orleans’ advantage lives inside—second-chance points and free throws—while Indiana hunts early-clock threes and corner looks created by dribble penetration.
• What’s at stake: Midseason seeding leverage in a packed conference race, plus a measuring stick for how each team’s strengths scale against elite opposition.

New Orleans wants to own the glass and win the foul line, forcing Indiana into longer half-court possessions. The Pacers counter by flattening the floor, using quick-hitting drag screens, and testing the Pelicans’ transition organization. If this turns into a track meet, Indiana holds the edge. If it slows and turns physical, New Orleans will feel right at home.

Players to Watch

• Zion Williamson, Pelicans: A force at the rim, his north-south power warps coverages. Indiana’s ability to wall up without fouling will decide whether Zion lives at the stripe or is funneled into kickouts.
• Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers: The engine of Indiana’s pace, he blends deep pull-ups with precision lobs. If he controls tempo and gets two feet in the paint early in possessions, New Orleans’ defense can get scrambled.
• CJ McCollum, Pelicans: The late-game shotmaker and spacer who punishes soft switches. His pull-up three can swing momentum if Indiana overhelps on Zion drives.

Key Stats

Indiana ranks among the league leaders in pace and early-clock three-point frequency, thriving when possessions stay under 12 seconds.

New Orleans sits in the league’s top tier in paint points and free-throw rate, with a positive offensive rebounding differential fueling second-chance offense.

Additional trends:

• Pacers’ assist-to-turnover ratio is one of the best in the NBA, a hallmark of Haliburton-led efficiency.
• Pelicans’ defensive field-goal percentage at the rim has improved with better backline discipline; opponents struggle when forced into floaters.
• Indiana’s bench scoring is consistently high, creating third-quarter surges; New Orleans counters with size and switchable wings to blunt those runs.

Prediction

The first five minutes will tell the story. If Indiana establishes pace with clean defensive rebounds and quick outlets, the Pelicans could be chasing shooters all night. But New Orleans’ edge on the interior—drives from Zion, timely kickouts to McCollum, and putbacks—can slow the game and generate efficient trips.

Expect a tug-of-war: Indiana’s flurries versus New Orleans’ grind. In a possession game, trust the team that can manufacture high-percentage looks late. Slight lean to the Pelicans if they keep turnovers low and win the free-throw margin; Indiana takes it if Haliburton’s threes fall early and the bench swings a quarter.

Edge: New Orleans by a couple of possessions in a high-100s affair, with zoning pockets and late-game shot creation tilting the balance.