NOP at WAS: Court Battle

The Pelicans head to the nation’s capital on Friday night with momentum and mismatches on their side, while the Wizards look to turn pace and shot volume into an upset. With both teams comfortable playing fast and letting it fly from deep, expect a high-possession game where star power and second-chance points could decide it.

The Matchup

New Orleans has carved out an identity around physicality at the rim and improved spacing, while Washington leans into tempo and perimeter creation to compensate for size and defensive growing pains. The Pelicans enter this one eyeing separation in a crowded West mid-table; the Wizards are searching for proof-of-concept wins as their young core develops.

Key storylines:

• Can New Orleans’ rim pressure overwhelm Washington’s interior defense?
• Will Washington’s pace-and-space drag the Pelicans into foul trouble and transition mismatches?
• Bench minutes: NOLA’s second unit has quietly won margins; Washington’s bench volatility swings totals and runs.

Key angle: New Orleans ranks among the league’s best in points in the paint and offensive rebounding, while Washington sits bottom-tier in defensive rebounding and paint defense.

Players to Watch

• Zion Williamson (NOP): The Pelicans’ downhill engine. His combination of burst and strength has driven elite paint scoring and free-throw generation. Against Washington’s thin rim protection, Zion’s touches could dictate the pace, draw early fouls, and force smaller lineups into scramble mode.
• CJ McCollum (NOP): The veteran shot-maker whose pull-up threes and midrange craft punish drop coverage and late switches. If Washington collapses on Zion, McCollum’s catch-and-shoot volume becomes the release valve.
• Kyle Kuzma (WAS): Washington’s primary scorer and late-clock creator. If his three-ball is falling, it unlocks five-out spacing and opens driving lanes for secondary guards.
• Tyus Jones (WAS): The turnover-averse table-setter who can control runouts. His assist-to-turnover steadiness is Washington’s best path to winning the possession game against a physical defense.

Key Stats

• Paint and glass:

  • Pelicans: Top-10 in points in the paint and offensive rebound rate; second-chance points have been a consistent edge.

  • Wizards: Bottom-third in defensive rebound rate; opponents’ put-back efficiency is elevated.
• Shot profile:
  • Pelicans: Above-average three-point accuracy on moderate volume; effective corner three rate off drive-and-kick actions.
  • Wizards: High pace, high three-point attempt rate, but streaky efficiency; live by the run, die by the drought.
• Possessions and fouls:
  • New Orleans keeps turnovers in check relative to league average.
  • Washington’s defense ranks bottom-tier in free-throw rate allowed—problematic versus Zion-driven rim pressure.
• Clutch splits:
  • Pelicans: Net rating near break-even in clutch but better half-court defense late.
  • Wizards: Clutch offense can stall when threes cool; limited rim pressure without easy mismatch hunting.

Prediction

Washington’s tempo will produce runs and a lively total, but New Orleans’ physicality should travel. Expect the Pelicans to control the paint, stack free throws, and win extra possessions on the glass. If Kuzma gets hot and Washington’s bench hits threes, this can hang close into the fourth. More likely, Zion’s rim gravity tilts coverage, freeing McCollum and NOLA shooters to create separation in the mid-third quarter.

Pelicans by two possessions, with a modest lean toward an uptempo game script driven by transition opportunities and second-chance scoring.