Player Prop Results for September 11, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 378-422-1 on September 11, 2026, across 801 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins, with one push. MLB drove almost all of the volume and outcomes, while a single tennis pick landed.

By the Numbers

• Overall: 378-422-1 (801 props)
• MLB: 377-422-1
• Tennis: 1-0

Biggest Wins

• Chris Sale — Pitcher Outs Over 18.50: WIN (actual 21.0). LineCrush’s models projected confidence in Sale getting deep enough to clear 19 outs, and he did exactly that, logging 21. This cleared the number without sweat and anchored one of the day’s best pitching calls.
• Taj Bradley — Pitcher Strikeouts Over 5.50: WIN (actual 6.0). We needed 6 and got 6. It wasn’t a blowout, but it cashed, reflecting our analysis that the matchup presented just enough swing-and-miss for Bradley to get over the hump.
• Adley Rutschman — Batter Total Bases Under: WIN (actual 0.0). A clean zero is as decisive as it gets on an under. Our analysis leaned under on his total bases, and the outcome backed it up.
• Aaron Judge — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN (actual 1.0). Keeping Judge to one total base is never comfortable on paper, but this under was precise and held up. The cap was clear: avoid the extra-base damage, and the bet survives.
• Henry Bolte — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN (actual 1.0). Another total bases under that landed right where we needed it. Our read aligned with a limited-impact outcome, and Bolte finished on one base total.

Where We Missed

• Jeffrey Springs — Pitcher Outs Over: LOSS (actual 15.0). We needed more volume from Springs, and it did not materialize. Stopping at 15 outs left the over short, and this was a straight miss on staying power.
• Corbin Carroll — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: LOSS (actual 4.0). Carroll cleared the under comfortably with four total bases. This wasn’t a near-miss; it was a decisive loss against our under call.
• Mark Vientos — Batter Hits Over 0.50: LOSS (actual 0.0). We looked for one hit and didn’t get it. A zero in the box score makes this a clear over miss.
• Julio Rodriguez — Batter Stolen Bases Over: LOSS (actual 0.0). We needed a bag and got none. Our projection leaned into a steal chance that didn’t materialize.
• Teoscar Hernandez — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS (actual 0.0). This was fully off: we needed extra-base production or multiple bases, and Hernandez was held to zero. No ambiguity here.

The split tells the story: MLB accounted for 800 of the 801 graded props and came in at 377-422-1. Tennis was a bright spot at 1-0, but the overall slate finished down. Days like this are part of high-volume grinding, and we call them as they are.

Every pick is graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose. You can verify each result and see how our analysis lined up with the actual outcomes, one prop at a time.

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