Player Prop Results for September 04, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 376-403-2 on September 04, 2026 across 781 graded player props. That’s a losing day, with more losses than wins, and we’re stating it plainly. MLB carried nearly the entire slate and finished below .500, while a small Tennis card went undefeated.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 375-403-2
• Tennis: 1-0

Biggest Wins

• Nolan McLean (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Over: WIN, actual 18.0. LineCrush’s models identified room for McLean to work deep enough to clear his outs number, and he got precisely to 18 outs, cashing the Over. It wasn’t flashy, but it was effective and clean.
• Cal Raleigh (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: WIN, actual 6.0. Raleigh crushed this Over. With 6.0 total bases, he blew past the 1.5 mark, delivering one of the most comfortable wins of the day on the bats.
• Pete Alonso (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN, actual 0.0. Our analysis leaned Under on Alonso’s bases, and he finished with nothing on the ledger. A zero locks it in decisively, validating the read on limiting extra-base damage.
• Adley Rutschman (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN, actual 0.0. Similar story here: a targeted Under that never got threatened. Rutschman ended with 0.0 total bases, making this a stress-free result.
• Teoscar Hernandez (MLB) — Batter Hits Over 0.50: WIN, actual 1.0. A one-hit ticket can sweat, but Hernandez came through with the single required. The Over 0.5 hits got there, contributing to the MLB win column on a tough overall day.

Where We Missed

• Jared Jones (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Under 14.50: LOSS, actual 18.0. We took the Under on his workload, and we were wrong. Jones pushed to 18 outs, clearing the number by a wide margin and handing us a firm loss.
• Yordan Alvarez (MLB) — Batter Runs Scored Under: LOSS, actual 1.0. We needed zero; Alvarez scored once. Even a single run busts an Under on this market, and it did.
• Ryan Jeffers (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS, actual 0.0. This never started. Jeffers finished with 0.0 total bases, so our Over missed by the full 1.5 bases.
• Max Fried (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Under: LOSS, actual 17.0. The Under didn’t hold. Fried got to 17 outs, enough to beat our position and put another L in the column.
• Ketel Marte (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under: LOSS, actual 2.0. We were on the Under, but Marte reached 2.0 total bases and went over the number. It was straightforward and it beat us.

The day’s bottom line is clear: 376-403-2, and most of the damage came in MLB at 375-403-2. The bright spot was a perfect 1-0 in Tennis, but it wasn’t enough to offset the baseball shortfall. LineCrush’s models don’t hide from days like this — every pick is tracked and graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose, so you can see the full slate exactly as it happened.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.