Player Prop Results for October 21, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 263-262 on October 21, 2026, across 525 graded player props. That’s barely positive on volume, but it includes 262 losses — we’re stating it plainly because results matter more than spin. Here’s exactly how LineCrush’s models performed yesterday, sport by sport and pick by pick in our featured hits and misses.

By the Numbers

• NBA: 183-180
• NHL: 49-39
• WNBA: 31-43

Biggest Wins

• Naz Reid — Points Over 17.50: WIN (actual 20.0). Our analysis flagged the scoring window correctly, and Reid cleared the number with room to spare, finishing two and a half points over the line.
• Al Horford — Points Under 6.50: WIN (actual 0.0). This was decisive. The under hit without sweat as Horford didn’t score, validating the read on his low-usage role.
• Anthony Edwards — Threes Over 3.50: WIN (actual 9.0). This was the standout 3-point over of the slate. Edwards more than doubled the requirement, torching the number by 5.5 threes.
• Pascal Siakam — Points Over 20.50: WIN (actual 30.0). A clean over with a 9.5-point margin. Siakam carried the offensive load and cleared 20.5 comfortably.
• Dyson Daniels — Steals Over 2.50: WIN (actual 5.0). A high-variance market that broke our way. Daniels posted five steals, sailing past the 2.5 threshold.

Where We Missed We record the losses the same way we record the wins — transparently and without caveats.

• Isaiah Jackson — Rebounds Over 7.50: LOSS (actual 5.0). The over didn’t materialize; he finished 2.5 boards short of the mark.
• Miles Bridges — Rebounds Over 5.50: LOSS (actual 4.0). Another rebounding over that fell short. Bridges missed by 1.5 rebounds.
• Darius Garland — Assists Over 8.50: LOSS (actual 4.0). This wasn’t close. Garland landed 4.5 assists under the line.
• Bobby Portis — Threes Over 1.50: LOSS (actual 1.0). We needed two makes from deep and got one. That’s a clean miss.
• Jalen Green — Assists Over 3.50: LOSS (actual 3.0). Just under. Green came up a half-assist short of cashing the over.

Context on the Day

• The NBA volume carried the slate at 183-180 — a slim positive with plenty of tight outcomes on both sides.
• NHL delivered a stronger win rate at 49-39, helping offset the day’s misses elsewhere.
• WNBA finished 31-43, a clear negative on that segment of the board.

What Stood Out

• Ceiling outcomes powered several of our wins: Anthony Edwards bombing nine threes and Dyson Daniels racking up five steals both blew past their numbers.
• Market edges on low-usage profiles paid off with Al Horford staying well under his points line.
• On the flip side, overs on peripheral stats bit us: rebound overs for Isaiah Jackson and Miles Bridges, and assist overs for Darius Garland and Jalen Green all finished under, including one lopsided result with Garland.

Every pick is graded publicly, win or lose. You can verify each result and the full 525 graded props from October 21 on LineCrush — the same transparency applies every day as our analysis tracks what players and coaches are saying, how they’re feeling, and how that intersects with the numbers.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.