Player Prop Results for August 11, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 444-456 on August 11, 2026 across 900 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins. MLB finished under water, while WNBA delivered a positive record to partially offset the slide.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 382-407
• WNBA: 62-49

Biggest Wins

• Nathaniel Lowe (MLB), Batter Hits Over 0.50 — WIN, actual: 1.0. Our analysis backed Lowe to notch at least one hit, and he cleared the bar with exactly one. A narrow over is still a win, and this one landed.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (MLB), Batter Total Bases Under 1.50 — WIN, actual: 1.0. LineCrush’s models leaned under on his total bases, and he finished on one, staying beneath the 1.5 mark.
• William Contreras (MLB), Batter Total Bases Under — WIN, actual: 0.0. A clean under with zero total bases. When our read is that production will be limited and it ends at zero, that’s the precise outcome we’re targeting.
• Bryce Harper (MLB), Batter Total Bases Under 1.50 — WIN, actual: 0.0. Harper was held without a total base, comfortably hitting the under and validating the projection.
• Lars Nootbaar (MLB), Batter Total Bases Under — WIN, actual: 0.0. Another zero on total bases where LineCrush’s models were under. These unders were decisive, not sweats.

Where We Missed

• Michael Busch (MLB), Batter Total Bases Over 1.50 — LOSS, actual: 0.0. We projected enough pop to clear 1.5, but he didn’t register a single total base. This was not close and counts squarely against us.
• Dylan Cease (MLB), Pitcher Outs Over 18.50 — LOSS, actual: 15.0. Our position needed 19 outs; he recorded 15. That’s four outs short of the number and a clear miss on the over.
• Taylor Ward (MLB), Batter Total Bases Over 1.50 — LOSS, actual: 0.0. Another over that never got traction. With zero total bases, this ticket was dead from start to finish.
• Brenton Doyle (MLB), Batter Total Bases Under — LOSS, actual: 4.0. We were under; he put up four total bases. That’s well beyond the threshold and a straightforward loss.
• Blake Snell (MLB), Pitcher Outs Under 14.50 — LOSS, actual: 18.0. We needed him to stay at 14 or fewer outs; he went to 18. That’s a decisive miss on the under.

The split tells the story. MLB drove the overall negative with a 382-407 mark. WNBA helped at 62-49, but it wasn’t enough to tip the day. The specific wins above highlight where our read on hitters’ limited production paid off, especially the total bases unders that landed at zero. The losses, particularly on several MLB overs and the pitcher outs misreads, were clear and unambiguous.

LineCrush grades every pick publicly, win or lose. You can see the full slate of 900 graded player props from August 11 on our platform, exactly as recorded. We’ll keep reporting the results — including the bad days — and continue refining based on the evidence from outcomes like these.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.