Player Prop Results for November 09, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 316-346 on November 09, 2026, across 662 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins. Here’s exactly how it broke down by sport, what hit, and where our calls missed.

By the Numbers

• NBA: 223-216
• NHL: 56-73
• NFL: 37-57

Biggest Wins

• Grayson Allen (NBA) — Assists Over 3.50: WIN, actual 6.0. Our analysis pegged Allen for a facilitation bump, and he cleared this comfortably with six dimes. That Over never felt seriously threatened once he got rolling.
• Nikola Jokić (NBA) — Threes Under: WIN, actual 1.0. LineCrush’s models leaned Under on his perimeter volume for the night, and he finished with a single make from deep, keeping this safely in the green.
• Naz Reid (NBA) — Points Over 19.50: WIN, actual 25.0. This was one of the cleaner reads of the slate. Reid’s scoring cleared by 5.5 points, reflecting the usage we expected.
• Luguentz Dort (NBA) — Points Under 7.50: WIN, actual 4.0. A disciplined Under that landed with room to spare. Dort’s role and efficiency lined up with our projection.
• Josh Allen (NFL) — Pass Interceptions Over 0.50: WIN, actual 1.0. We anticipated turnover risk in this spot, and Allen threw exactly one pick to cash the Over.

Where We Missed

• De’Anthony Melton (NBA) — Points Under 9.50: LOSS, actual 16.0. We were on the wrong side here. Melton beat the Under by 6.5 points, outpacing the scoring profile we projected.
• Justin Jefferson (NFL) — Receptions Over 6.50: LOSS, actual 3.0. This was a clear miss. Jefferson landed at three catches, well short of the Over and nowhere near the target volume we needed.
• Kyrie Irving (NBA) — Points Under: LOSS, actual 35.0. We called an Under, and Irving put up 35 points. That result decisively invalidated the angle; he exceeded our expectation by a wide margin.
• Kevin Durant (NBA) — Points Under: LOSS, actual 23.0. Another Under that didn’t land. Durant reached 23 points, which was enough to beat the Under we backed.
• Josh Allen (NFL) — Rush Yds Over 32.50: LOSS, actual 15.0. We expected more on the ground; he finished with 15 rushing yards, less than half of what the Over required.

What this means for the slate

• NBA narrowly positive: 223-216. The league where we had the most volume was also our only winning column for the day, driven in part by clean reads on role-driven props like Grayson Allen’s assists and Dort’s scoring Under.
• NFL and NHL dragged the card: NFL finished 37-57 and NHL 56-73. Those deficits defined the overall red day, with several marquee NFL misses—most notably on Jefferson’s receptions and Allen’s rushing—tilting the balance.

What held up

• When we leaned into usage clarity and role stability, several NBA props paid with cushion (Reid Over, Dort Under).
• Risk calibration on turnover props like Josh Allen’s interceptions matched the outcome.

What didn’t

• Star-scorer Unders burned us twice (Irving, Durant).
• Anticipated volume spikes didn’t materialize on key NFL skill props (Jefferson receptions, Allen rushing).

Every pick is graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose. You can audit all 662 player props from November 09, 2026, see the exact lines and results, and track how our analysis performed across each market and sport.

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