NHL · May 16, 2026

Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens

Free LineCrush game report for Buffalo Sabres @ Montreal Canadiens on May 16, 2026, with matchup analysis and pick ideas generated for the daily slate. Reports can update as lineups, injuries, and odds develop, so confirm time-sensitive details before acting.

Pick Ideas

Slight lean to Canadiens moneyline at modest home-favorite prices

With Montreal owning strong underlying efficiency numbers at home and Buffalo potentially missing depth pieces like Sam Carrick (who is not on the current projected roster) while managing Josh Norris’ health, a small edge tilts toward the Canadiens on the moneyline as long as the price doesn’t get too steep.

Consider the over if the total is 5.5 goals

Montreal’s top-10 offense (3.1 goals per game) and Buffalo’s high-end scoring talent suggest a path to a more open game, especially if special teams come into play, making an over 5.5 appealing if books don’t bump this higher for a playoff matchup.

Cole Caufield shots on goal over if priced at 3.0–3.5

Buffalo tends to concede looks from the flanks on the penalty kill, which suits Cole Caufield’s volume-shooting role on the left-side faceoff circle, so an over on his shots prop is attractive if the number opens in the 3–3.5 range at reasonable juice.