NCAAB · March 13, 2026
ST. BONAVENTURE BONNIES @ DAY
Free LineCrush game report for ST. BONAVENTURE BONNIES @ DAY on March 13, 2026, with matchup analysis and pick ideas generated for the daily slate. Reports can update as lineups, injuries, and odds develop, so confirm time-sensitive details before acting.
Matchup Analysis
Mitchell's Rebounding Dominance Could Tilt the Glass
Frank Mitchell leads the Atlantic 10 in rebounding at 10.3 boards per game and ranks eighth nationally with 340 rebounds on the season. In his last three games, he averaged 9.7 rebounds to go with 16.0 points, posting seven straight double-doubles entering tournament play. Controlling the glass will be critical for St. Bonaventure against a Dayton team averaging 29.6 rebounds in their last 10 games.
Dayton's Close February Win Sets Tone for Rematch
The Flyers narrowly defeated St. Bonaventure 72-70 on February 4, with Javon Bennett leading the way with 20 points. Now facing each other in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals, Dayton enters as the fourth seed (21-10, 12-6 A-10) with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, while the Bonnies carry momentum from a 99-80 win over La Salle on March 11 but sit 4-6 over the same stretch.
St. Bonaventure's Injury Depleted Roster Facing Uphill Battle
The Bonnies are without several contributors including guards Amar'e Marshall (foot injury) and Ilia Ermakov (undisclosed), plus forwards Xander Wedlow and John Ikpotokin (both undisclosed). These absences force more playing time onto starters Darryl Simmons II, who has averaged 16.9 points over the last 10 games and logged 35.4 minutes per game in conference play.
Three-Point Shooting Disparity Could Decide Winner
St. Bonaventure averages 7.2 made three-pointers per game while Dayton allows just 7.4—nearly identical. However, the Flyers shoot 45.3% from the field compared to the 45.8% the Bonnies permit. Amaël L'Etang's efficiency in his last 10 games (57.5% shooting) will be crucial for St. Bonaventure's offense against Dayton's balanced defense.
Bennett's Scoring Prowess vs. Simmons II's Conference-Leading Efficiency
Javon Bennett averages 15.9 points and 1.5 steals for Dayton, while Darryl Simmons II leads the A-10 with 56 made three-pointers in conference play and has made multiple three-pointers in 11 of his last 13 games. The battle between these two perimeter threats will shape the game's flow and determine which team controls the pace.
Pick Ideas
Dayton -6.5 Spread
Dayton's superior seeding (4 vs. 13), better recent form (7-3 vs. 4-6 in last 10), and home court advantage at PPG Paints Arena suggest they should cover the spread against an injury-depleted St. Bonaventure squad.
Under 140.5 Total Points
Both teams rank near the middle offensively, and St. Bonaventure's defensive struggles combined with tournament intensity typically produces lower-scoring games. The under has been profitable in Dayton's recent matchups.
Frank Mitchell Over 10.3 Rebounds
Mitchell has been one of the most consistent rebounders in the country and routinely dominates the glass. Expect him to exceed this mark against a Dayton team that will need to crash the boards to compete.
Darryl Simmons II Over 15.5 Points
Simmons has averaged 16.9 points over the last 10 games and must shoulder additional scoring load due to St. Bonaventure's injury situation. His three-point prowess makes him a reliable scoring option in tournament play.
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