NCAAB · March 4, 2026
STONEHILL SKYHAWKS @ LE MOYNE DOLPHINS
Free LineCrush game report for STONEHILL SKYHAWKS @ LE MOYNE DOLPHINS on March 4, 2026, with matchup analysis and pick ideas generated for the daily slate. Reports can update as lineups, injuries, and odds develop, so confirm time-sensitive details before acting.
Matchup Analysis
Stonehill's Recent Head-to-Head Success Irrelevant in Tournament Setting
While Stonehill has won the last two matchups against Le Moyne (77-68 on Feb 21 and 65-54 on Jan 31), this NEC Quarterfinal represents a different challenge. Le Moyne's 10-3 home record at Ted Grant Court provides a significant advantage in a single-elimination tournament environment where first-round losses end seasons.
Stonehill's Catastrophic Road Record Heavily Favors Le Moyne
Stonehill enters the game with an abysmal 3-14 record away from home, while Le Moyne sits 10-3 at home. This 20-game swing in home/away splits is reflected in the 6.5-point spread and suggests Le Moyne's home court is a legitimate equalizer despite recent head-to-head losses.
Le Moyne's Superior Efficiency and Scoring Firepower
Le Moyne averages 73.1 PPG compared to Stonehill's 66.4 PPG, while shooting 46% from the field versus Stonehill's 42%. Shilo Jackson (15.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG) and Ametri Moss (4.5 APG) provide a more balanced offensive attack than Stonehill's reliance on Hermann Koffi's 13.1 PPG.
Stonehill's Overtime Loss to Mercyhurst Creates Momentum Concern
Coming off a 75-72 overtime loss at home to Mercyhurst, Stonehill may lack emotional and physical freshness heading into a tournament quarterfinal. Le Moyne's loss to New Haven (66-59) was less draining and came on the road, potentially positioning them better mentally.
Three-Point Shooting Disparity Could Determine Tournament Outcome
Le Moyne has demonstrated superior three-point consistency in recent games, shooting 48% from three in the Feb 21 matchup versus Stonehill's 34%. In a close tournament game, Le Moyne's perimeter shooting advantage could prove decisive.
Pick Ideas
Le Moyne -6.5
Home court dominance (10-3) combined with Stonehill's dismal 3-14 road record makes Le Moyne's spread attractive. Predictive power ratings favor Le Moyne (-7.8 vs -11.1), suggesting the 6.5-point line offers value.
Over 138.5
Le Moyne averages 140.9 PPG at home in the last 10 games with games going over 135.5 in 5 of 10 home contests. Both teams' offensive efficiency supports a higher-scoring tournament game.
Shilo Jackson Over 15.5 PPG
Le Moyne's leading scorer averages 15.9 PPG and should see increased volume and pace in tournament play. Jackson's 64.6% field goal percentage provides consistency.
Le Moyne -6.5 with Moneyline Parlay
Le Moyne's moneyline (-294) can be paired with the spread for enhanced returns. Home court positioning in a single-elimination tournament creates favorable odds for the favorites.
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