TTU @ BAY

Texas Tech carries momentum from Stillwater

Texas Tech improved to 9-1 with a 52-27 win at Oklahoma State on Nov. 14, totaling 442 yards and winning its third straight.

Castellanos’ availability is the key question

Tommy Castellanos threw for 263 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma State before leaving with an injury; his status for Baylor was not established in the available Nov. 15 reporting.

Williams gives the Red Raiders a strong ground-game foundation

J'Koby Williams reached 1,078 rushing yards in 2026 with 124 against Oklahoma State, his third consecutive 100-yard game.

Baylor’s season-long numbers contrast with its latest offensive showing

Baylor averaged 29.4 points and 413.9 total yards through 10 games but managed 238 yards in a 28-7 loss at BYU on Nov. 14; DJ Lagway threw for 159 yards, and Baylor had 79 rushing yards.

Baylor’s pass rush is a meaningful matchup factor

Baylor’s 38 sacks through 10 games could pressure Texas Tech if Castellanos plays or disrupt the backup situation.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Wait for the quarterback update before backing Texas Tech

With Texas Tech -1.5 and the quarterback update still pending, consider the Red Raiders only if Castellanos is cleared; otherwise, pass on the side.

Small lean to the under 55.5

At 55.5, a small under lean is reasonable after Baylor scored seven against BYU, though quarterback uncertainty warrants a small stake.