Alessandro Costa vs Amir Albazi

Costa brings a finish-heavy 2026 run

Costa has won three fights in 2026, ending each by stoppage. That recent output gives him momentum, but the opponents and circumstances differ from this rematch.

Albazi has gone the distance against top-level opposition

Albazi’s most recent losses, to Kyoji Horiguchi and Brandon Moreno, came by decision. His experience in longer bouts could matter if Costa’s early pressure does not produce a finish.

The first meeting ended in the third round

Albazi stopped Costa with punches in their December 2022 bout. That result gives Albazi a proven route to victory, though the rematch comes after substantial time and different recent form.

Albazi has a small reach advantage

The listed tale of the tape gives Albazi a one-inch reach edge. He could use it to manage distance, while Costa will want to close space and make exchanges uncomfortable.

Costa’s takedown defense is a key check on Albazi’s grappling

UFC lists Costa’s takedown defense at 87%, while Albazi’s career takedown accuracy is listed at 9%. Albazi may need to connect wrestling attempts to transitions or extended control rather than rely on single-shot entries.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Costa moneyline at a better price than the opener

The listed average moved from Costa -168 at open to about -140, making the current price less expensive than the early market. Consider the moneyline only if that price remains available; odds can change.

Consider a live entry rather than forcing a pre-fight prop

If Albazi’s early attacks do not produce sustained control and Costa is landing clean counters, a live Costa moneyline may offer a clearer read than guessing the finish method beforehand. Set a price limit and avoid chasing a move.