Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans

Murray uncertainty pressures Pelicans creation

Dejounte Murray's trade request, doubtful status, and recent low-usage concern leave New Orleans without a stable veteran creation source. That makes the Pelicans more dependent on younger ball handlers and strengthens the case for selective Zion passing unders.

New Orleans has fewer frontcourt and wing answers

Trey Murphy III and Yves Missi are out, while Murphy's absence specifically opens wing volume for Bryce McGowens. The resulting compressed rotation supports more opportunity for secondary scorers, but the team report's depth-crisis warning argues against assuming that extra usage will translate into efficient overall offense.

Memphis frontcourt is unsettled

Zach Edey and Quinten Post are unavailable, leaving Taylor Hendricks projected at center despite a recent report questioning whether he can handle that role. Edey's absence also aligns with Ty Jerome's reported 5.8-point assist-percentage increase without him, creating a clearer playmaking angle than a broad Memphis frontcourt projection.

Zion's passing role has cooled

Zion Williamson's on-ball share is down nearly 10 points and his potential assists have fallen by seven per 100 possessions. He also finished with two assists after saying he wanted to find shooters, while Murray and Jeremiah Fears' guard play has reduced his touches.

Pelicans scoring is increasingly concentrated

New Orleans' team report identifies Jeremiah Fears as the primary scoring outlet after consecutive high-volume performances, while also warning that the roster shortage can suppress team scoring around him. That combination makes Fears-driven production more plausible than another uniformly explosive Pelicans offensive game.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Memphis -2.5 at a controlled price

Memphis -2.5 at -110 remains a reasonable spread idea, with a price limit. New Orleans is dealing with Murray uncertainty plus the absences of Murphy and Missi, and its compressed rotation is less trustworthy than the recent 130-point scoring streak suggests, although Memphis's own center shortages keep this from being an aggressive position.

Under 236.5 points

The under 236.5 at -115 is preferable while the number holds. New Orleans' depth crisis concentrates offense in Fears and forces secondary contributors into larger roles, while the missing Pelicans frontcourt and wing pieces make sustained efficiency less reliable despite recent scoring volatility.

Zion Williamson assists under

Williamson's assists under is supported by the nearly 10-point decline in on-ball share, the seven-per-100 drop in potential assists, and his two-assist outing against Brooklyn. With Fears and the Pelicans' remaining guards absorbing more creation responsibility, his stated intention to find shooters has not translated into consistent playmaking volume.

Ty Jerome assists over

Jerome's assists over is attractive if the market has not fully adjusted to Memphis's center absences. His assist percentage is reported to be 5.8 points higher without Edey across 326 team minutes, and his expanded role is described as game management rather than merely microwave scoring.