Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Denver’s early offense remains volatile

Denver's recurring first-quarter execution issues remain a clear team-level concern, with Jamal Murray calling for calmer starts, more physicality, and better shooting. That makes the Nuggets' early offensive rhythm less trustworthy than a generic full-strength assessment.

Denver’s scoring burden is not evenly supported

Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic combined for 63 of Denver's 100 points against Houston, while DeMar DeRozan's role remains unsettled. DeRozan went 0-for-3 during Houston's 15-2 run, and Denver was minus-17 with him on the floor, reinforcing the concern about secondary scoring stability.

Jokic’s three-point role is deteriorating

Nikola Jokic has acknowledged that his practice shooting has not carried into games, and he was just 8-for-38 from three through November 9. Coach David Adelman's preference for moving him from top-of-key and five-out spots into the post further weakens the case for a high-volume perimeter night.

Memphis can attack Denver on the glass

Denver allowed 15 offensive rebounds and 24 second-chance points against Houston, while Olivier-Maxence Prosper is confirmed to start at center for Memphis. That combination creates a specific rebounding opportunity for Prosper and increases the importance of Christian Braun's energy and 50-50-ball work.

Memphis has a two-handler assist angle

Memphis is pairing Javon Small with Ty Jerome as part of a turnover fix, and Small playing beside Jerome is also keeping Cam Spencer below 20 minutes. Jerome's shared on-ball role limits Small's ceiling, but the intended two-handler structure still gives Small a path to elevated assist involvement.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Nikola Jokic under three-pointers

Jokic's three-point under is supported by his 8-for-38 season mark through November 9, his admission that game shooting has lagged behind practice, and Denver's shift toward post usage. The bet also fits a matchup where Denver may need him to carry offense but not necessarily through perimeter volume.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper over rebounds

Prosper's confirmed start at center creates a direct rebounding opportunity against a Denver team that just surrendered 15 offensive boards and 24 second-chance points. Memphis can use his frontcourt role to pressure the Nuggets' weak defensive-possession finishing.

Javon Small over assists

Small's assist over is supported by Memphis pairing him with Jerome to address turnovers and by Small's minutes alongside Jerome keeping Cam Spencer below 20 minutes. Jerome's shared ball-handling limits the ceiling, but the adjusted backcourt structure still points toward more playmaking chances for Small.

DeMar DeRozan under points

DeRozan's points under fits Denver's unresolved plan for using him, including off-ball work, and his recent 0-for-3 stretch during Houston's 15-2 run. Denver's reliance on Murray and Jokic for 63 points against Houston also suggests the secondary scoring role remains difficult to trust.

Cameron Johnson over three-pointers

Adelman specifically wants Johnson shooting more and has indicated that open attempts will not cost him minutes, while Denver's perimeter depth is thinner with Tim Hardaway Jr. compromised. Johnson's recent low-volume outing and only three double-figure scoring games through nine contests make this a volume-dependent angle rather than a broad offensive confidence play.