KSU @ TCU

TCU comes off a one-point road loss

TCU fell 29-28 at No. 22 Arizona on Nov. 6 and enters at 4-5 overall (2-4 in Big 12 play).

K-State needs to stop the slide

Kansas State’s 66-28 loss to Oklahoma State on Nov. 7 made it three straight losses and left the Wildcats 4-5 overall (1-5 in conference play).

Craig’s passing production meets a stingy pass defense

Jaden Craig has thrown for 2,439 yards in 2026, while Kansas State allows 173 passing yards per game.

Run-game matchup tilts toward the Wildcats

Kansas State averages 196.8 rushing yards per game, while TCU allows 114.7; the matchup could shape the pace.

Recent series history favors K-State

Kansas State has won three straight meetings with TCU and six of the last seven since 2019.

Availability remains unconfirmed

No official Nov. 14 injury report or game-week depth chart was verifiable as of Nov. 8, so availability and projected lineups remain unsettled.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Wait for a real sportsbook number

No sportsbook spread or total was posted as of Nov. 8; avoid treating a prediction-market probability as a book line and reassess when odds and availability reports appear.

Consider the under only at a high number

Consider the under at 55.5 or higher: TCU has allowed 15.8 points per game over its nine recent completed games, while Kansas State allowed 66 in its latest game.

Set a price limit on TCU’s moneyline

Consider TCU’s moneyline only if its price implies a win probability below ESPN’s 64.4% projection; otherwise pass.