Cesar Almeida vs Donte Johnson

Johnson brings the early-finish threat

Seven of Johnson’s nine wins have come by knockout, and seven of his victories ended in the first round. His latest outing also ended with a first-round KO, so Almeida will need to manage the opening exchanges carefully.

Almeida’s striking efficiency stands out

UFC stats list Almeida at 3.73 significant strikes landed per minute with 60% accuracy, compared with Johnson’s 3.36 and 46%. Those numbers come from different career samples, but they point to Almeida’s potential to make clean connections at range.

Johnson has a wrestling option

Johnson averages 1.87 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Almeida averages 0.20. If Johnson chooses to mix in takedowns rather than trade throughout, that offers a distinct route to disrupting Almeida’s striking rhythm.

Almeida needs a rebound

Almeida comes in after consecutive losses, most recently a first-round TKO against Damian Pinas in July. The result makes a composed start especially important as he looks to halt that skid.

Pick Ideas

Angles drawn from the matchup analysis above and refreshed as the news changes. They are a separate read from the LineCrush pick for this matchup, so the two can land on different sides.

Johnson moneyline, with a price limit

The UFC event listing showed Johnson at -160 and Almeida at +135 on November 8. Johnson’s moneyline is worth considering near that price, but reassess if the favorite gets substantially more expensive.

Wait for an Almeida plus-money drift

For an underdog position, consider Almeida only if the price reaches +150 or better; keep the stake modest rather than treating the recent market quote as a guaranteed edge.