MLB · September 12, 2026 · 2:21 PM ET
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
Free LineCrush game report for Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs on September 12, 2026, with matchup analysis and pick ideas generated for the daily slate. Reports can update as lineups, injuries, and odds develop, so confirm time-sensitive details before acting.
Matchup Analysis
Skenes faces mounting workload and efficiency concerns
While Skenes recently threw six scoreless innings, his underlying metrics suggest a significant decline. His Stuff+ metric has dropped to 99, below league average, and the Pirates are explicitly monitoring and capping his pitch volume. Furthermore, Skenes has admitted to poor execution on two-strike pitches and is struggling to locate in three-ball counts.
SourceCrow-Armstrong pursues historic 40-40 milestone
Pete Crow-Armstrong enters this matchup with 41 home runs and 35 stolen bases, actively chasing a 40-40 season. Though he admitted to recent timing issues with fastballs, he maintains high monthly walk rates that provide non-hit paths to the basepaths. He is projected to hit leadoff, maximizing his opportunities to utilize his speed against a struggling Skenes.
SourcePirates lineup faces health and mechanical hurdles
The Pittsburgh offense is hindered by Esmerlyn Valdez, who required help leaving the field due to a left hamstring injury. Spencer Horwitz is also scuffling, admitting to daily uncertainty regarding major swing changes, while Ryan O'Hearn's full workload remains in question following his recent return from the injured list.
SourceOneil Cruz shows signs of power resurgence
Oneil Cruz recently snapped a 47-at-bat homerless drought with a 117.4-mph home run. Despite a volatile strikeout rate against lefties, Cruz has shown improved two-strike contact with runners in scoring position and recently drove in a run against Shota Imanaga, signaling high RBI potential in the heart of the order.
Cubs lower order faces volume risks
Ian Happ is dealing with a sore toe that makes cutting uncomfortable, potentially limiting his total base production. Additionally, Pedro Ramírez and Carson Kelly are projected to bat in the bottom third of the lineup, which limits their plate appearance volume despite Kelly's recent two-run double.
Pick Ideas
Paul Skenes under 15.5 pitching outs
The under is supported by the team's explicit plan to cap Skenes' pitch volume and his own admissions of poor execution on putaway pitches. With his Stuff+ metric dropping below league average, he is unlikely to work deep enough to record 16 outs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 stolen bases
Projected to lead off, Crow-Armstrong is highly motivated to reach the 40-40 milestone with five steals left to go. His high walk rate ensures he can get on base to challenge the Pirates' battery even if his timing against fastballs remains slightly off.
Spencer Horwitz under hits, runs, and RBIs
Horwitz is projected to bat seventh, significantly limiting his opportunities for production. Coaches have confirmed he has been scuffling since his return, and the player admitted to being caught between mechanical swing changes and natural hitting.
Brandon Lowe over 0.5 singles
Lowe has adopted a contact-first approach specifically centered on hitting singles to lower the pressure on his performance. Projected to bat second, he will have ample opportunities to put the ball in play against a pitcher currently struggling with location.
Oneil Cruz over 0.5 RBIs
Cruz has found his power stroke again and has shown specific improvement in two-strike contact when runners are in scoring position. His ability to produce high exit velocities makes him the primary candidate to drive in runs for the Pirates.
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