Player Prop Results for October 22, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 314-360 on October 22, 2026, across 674 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins overall. Below we break down how that performance split by sport, where our edges showed up, and where our reads missed.

By the Numbers

• NHL: 231-236
• NFL: 51-56
• NBA: 32-68

Biggest Wins

• Rhamondre Stevenson (NFL) — Rush Yds Under 40.50: WIN, actual 22.0. Our analysis leaned under on his ground volume, and the result stayed well beneath the number with room to spare.
• Jamal Murray (NBA) — Assists Under 5.50: WIN, actual 3.0. LineCrush’s models projected fewer playmaking touches for Murray relative to the posted line, and he finished three full assists under.
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (NBA) — Assists Under: WIN, actual 3.0. Even without a posted number here, the outcome validated our under position on his facilitation for the night.
• Jarrett Allen (NBA) — Rebounds Under 8.50: WIN, actual 7.0. We called for a tighter rebounding window than the market implied; Allen closed one-and-a-half boards below the line.
• Timo Meier (NHL) — Shots On Goal Over: WIN, actual 5.0. Our analysis flagged a high-volume shooting role, and Meier cleared his over with a solid cushion at five on target.

Where We Missed

• D’Andre Swift (NFL) — Rush Yds Under 60.50: LOSS, actual 78.0. We were under on his rushing workload and efficiency; he exceeded the number by a clear margin.
• LeBron James (NBA) — Assists Over 7.50: LOSS, actual 5.0. We projected an over on his table-setting, but he finished three short of the mark.
• A.J. Brown (NFL) — Receptions Over 5.50: LOSS, actual 3.0. We needed six; Brown landed at three, well under the target.
• Isaiah Hartenstein (NBA) — Assists Over 2.50: LOSS, actual 2.0. We played the over on a modest line and came up one assist shy.
• Luke Evangelista (NHL) — Shots On Goal Over 2.50: LOSS, actual 2.0. We took the over and missed by a single shot on goal.

Context and Takeaways

• NHL was our steadiest lane at 231-236. That’s just five games under .500 across a large slate, with individual bright spots like Timo Meier’s shots-on-goal over cashing at five. Still, the aggregate in hockey finished negative.
• NFL closed 51-56. The Stevenson under was a clean read, but we also logged clear misses on D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards and A.J. Brown’s receptions, both moving against our positions.
• NBA lagged at 32-68. We hit some unders on playmaking and boards—Jamal Murray’s assists under and Jarrett Allen’s rebounds under both landed—but the overall basketball card underperformed, including losses on LeBron’s assists over and Isaiah Hartenstein’s assists over.

Bottom Line

• Total for October 22, 2026: 314-360. That’s a down day, and we record it exactly as it happened.
• Highlights included unders that aligned with our analysis on ball distribution and role-based volume, particularly for Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jarrett Allen, plus Timo Meier’s shot volume.
• Misses were unambiguous, with notable overs that didn’t get there and a couple of NFL reads that went against us decisively.

Every pick is graded publicly on LineCrush—win or lose—so you can audit our performance day by day and track how our analysis translates to results.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.