Player Prop Results for October 11, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 660-755 on October 11, 2026, with 1,415 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins overall. Below is exactly how it broke down by sport, what we nailed, and where our reads missed.

By the Numbers

• NFL: 566-665
• NHL: 68-54
• MLB: 22-32
• NBA: 4-4

Biggest Wins

• Malik Nabers (NFL): Reception Yds Over 56.50 — WIN, actual: 121.0
  Our analysis flagged the matchup and role for Nabers, and LineCrush’s models leaned into the yardage upside. He cleared 56.5 by a wide margin, finishing with 121.0 receiving yards.

• Brock Bowers (NFL): Receptions Over 6.50 — WIN, actual: 8.0
  This was a volume call. We projected consistent targets and Bowers delivered with 8 catches, topping the 6.5 receptions line.

• Mike Evans (NFL): Reception Yds Over 48.50 — WIN, actual: 113.0
  Evans’ downfield involvement made the 48.5 number attractive in our projections. He more than doubled it with 113.0 yards, validating the over.

• Andy Pages (MLB): Batter Hits Over 0.50 — WIN, actual: 1.0
  A straightforward one: our edge was on Pages to find a base hit, and he logged exactly one to cash the over 0.5.

• Kyler Murray (NFL): Pass Completions Over 20.50 — WIN, actual: 24.0
  We leaned into pass volume here. Murray’s 24 completions cleared 20.5, matching our expectation for a busy day through the air.

Where We Missed

• Deebo Samuel (NFL): Receptions Over 3.50 — LOSS, actual: 2.0
  We needed four catches; he finished with two. This missed cleanly against the number.

• Jalen Hurts (NFL): Pass Yds Under 186.50 — LOSS, actual: 220.0
  We were under on Hurts’ passing yardage. He reached 220.0 yards, surpassing the 186.5 line and invalidating the under.

• Bijan Robinson (NFL): Rush Yds Over 88.50 — LOSS, actual: 86.0
  This was close but still a loss. We needed 89; he ended at 86.0. Edges at this range are sensitive, and the over didn’t get there.

• Mike Evans (NFL): Reception Yds Under 48.50 — LOSS, actual: 113.0
  We were split on Evans with both an over and an under listed at 48.5. The result landed decisively against the under, with Evans finishing at 113.0 yards.

• Kyle Pitts (NFL): Receptions Under 2.50 — LOSS, actual: 5.0
  This one missed by a wide margin. We took under 2.5 receptions; Pitts caught five.

Radically honest recap: 660 wins and 755 losses on October 11 isn’t the target outcome. The NFL volume carried most of the day’s variance, with NHL positive, MLB negative, and NBA even.

Every pick is graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose. You can verify each result on our site, see the exact lines and outcomes listed above, and track how our analysis performs across sports day by day.

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