Player Prop Results for October 06, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 262-260 on October 06, 2026, across 522 graded player props. That’s a narrow winning day by two picks, and we’re stating it plainly: 262 wins, 260 losses.

By the Numbers

• NHL: 202-189
• MLB: 60-71

Biggest Wins

• Auston Matthews (NHL), Shots On Goal Over — WIN, actual: 4.0. Our analysis expected volume from Matthews, and he cleared the Over with four shots on goal, delivering exactly what the number asked for.
• Timo Meier (NHL), Shots On Goal Over — WIN, actual: 8.0. Meier smashed the Over with eight shots on goal, one of the most emphatic Over results on the slate and a clean validation of LineCrush’s models reading his role and usage correctly.
• William Contreras (MLB), Batter Hits Over 0.50 — WIN, actual: 3.0. Contreras didn’t just get on the board; he tripled the requirement with three hits, a decisive Over that anchored our MLB card.
• Lane Hutson (NHL), Assists Over — WIN, actual: 1.0. Hutson got the helper we needed, landing the Over exactly and turning a thin margin into a green check.
• Jordan Staal (NHL), Points Under — WIN, actual: 0.0. Staal stayed off the scoresheet, a straightforward Under that matched our projection for a lower-event night from him.

Where We Missed

• Chris Sale (MLB), Pitcher Outs Over 18.50 — LOSS, actual: 15.0. We needed Sale to complete at least 19 outs; he finished at 15. That’s a clear miss on duration and efficiency relative to the line.
• Luke Evangelista (NHL), Shots On Goal Over — LOSS, actual: 2.0. The Over didn’t get there. Evangelista finished with two shots on goal, short of the requirement and short of our expectation.
• Logan Stankoven (NHL), Shots On Goal Over 1.50 — LOSS, actual: 1.0. We graded this Over and it came up one shot light. At 1.0 SOG, the pick missed plainly.
• Sam Reinhart (NHL), Points Over 0.50 — LOSS, actual: 0.0. We needed any point; Reinhart recorded none. That’s a direct loss on a binary points market.
• Jackson Merrill (MLB), Batter Total Bases Over 1.50 — LOSS, actual: 1.0. Merrill ended with one total base, under the 1.5 we needed. The number was close, but it did not cash.

What this means for the day

• The NHL card carried the load at 202-189. The wins from Matthews, Meier, Hutson, and Staal exemplified the types of markets our analysis targeted: high-volume shooters for Overs, role-driven playmakers for assists, and conservative fades on depth scoring with Unders.
• MLB finished 60-71. Contreras was a bright spot with three hits on a 0.5 line, but the pain points were clear in our losses: pitcher length (Sale at 15 outs vs. 18.5) and thin margins on total bases props (Merrill at 1.0 vs. 1.5).

No hedging, no spin: 262-260 is a win, but barely. The NHL edge showed up; MLB lagged behind with a losing split. We’ll keep grading every pick publicly at LineCrush, win or lose, so you can see exactly what hit, what missed, and how our analysis performed across each market yesterday.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.