Player Prop Results for October 05, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 221-226 on October 05, 2026 across 447 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re saying it plainly: more losses than wins. LineCrush’s models were strong in the NFL but dragged down by a tough NHL slate, with MLB landing slightly positive.

By the Numbers

• NHL: 60-106
• NFL: 87-54
• MLB: 74-66

Biggest Wins

• Tyler Shough (NFL): Pass Interceptions Under 0.50 — WIN, actual: 0.0. Our analysis backed a clean-sheet outcome and got exactly that. Zero picks made the Under a straightforward cash.
• Michael Penix (NFL): Rush Yds Under — WIN, actual: -2.0. The ground game never got going. With negative rushing yardage, the Under cleared comfortably, reflecting the constraint we anticipated.
• José Ramírez (MLB): Batter Total Bases Under 1.50 — WIN, actual: 0.0. This hinged on limiting extra-base impact. Ending with zero total bases made the Under decisive.
• Drake London (NFL): Reception Yds Over 78.50 — WIN, actual: 96.0. He beat the number by a healthy margin, validating our projection for volume and chunk gains through the air.
• Alvin Kamara (NFL): Receptions Over 3.50 — WIN, actual: 5.0. A featured passing-game role delivered five catches, getting the Over home without late sweat.

Where We Missed

• Cam Schlittler (MLB): Pitcher Strikeouts Over 6.50 — LOSS, actual: 2.0. We needed a high-K outing and didn’t get close. Two strikeouts fell well short of the 7+ required, and that’s a clear miss against our expectation.
• Michael Penix (NFL): Pass Yds Over 228.50 — LOSS, actual: 223.0. This one missed by a sliver. We projected enough volume to clear 228.5, but ending at 223.0 left the Over just under the mark.
• Brian Robinson (NFL): Rush Yds Under 33.50 — LOSS, actual: 62.0. The Under never had a chance. He nearly doubled the line, and our read on his rushing workload and efficiency was off.
• Fabian Zetterlund (NHL): Points Over — LOSS, actual: 0.0. We needed the scoresheet and didn’t get it. With zero points, the Over was never live.
• Sidney Crosby (NHL): Points Over — LOSS, actual: 0.0. Another blank in the points column. We called for offense that didn’t materialize, and the Over was a full miss.

What it means: The split tells the story. NFL props carried the slate at 87-54, aligning with where our edges landed best. MLB finished in the black at 74-66, a modest but meaningful positive. NHL was the anchor, going 60-106. That imbalance flipped a potentially solid day into a losing one overall, and we’re not hiding from it — 221 wins, 226 losses, period.

If you tailed the standout NFL Unders on turnover risk and QB rushing, plus selective skill-position Overs, you likely felt the lift from Shough, Penix (rushing), London, and Kamara. Conversely, an aggressive stance on strikeouts and NHL points hurt, punctuated by Schlittler’s two Ks and zero-point nights from Zetterlund and Crosby. Penix’s passing total landing at 223.0 underscored how thin the margins can be.

Every pick is graded publicly, win or lose, and October 05, 2026 is no exception. You can verify all 447 outcomes on LineCrush, see what our models backed, and decide where today’s edges are strongest.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.