Player Prop Results for October 04, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 854-876 on October 04, 2026, across 1,730 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins overall, despite several strong NFL hits.

All results below are exactly as graded by LineCrush’s models on October 04, 2026.

By the Numbers

• NFL: 633-661
• NHL: 117-108
• MLB: 73-82
• WNBA: 31-25

Biggest Wins

• Derrick Henry (NFL) — Rush TDs Over: WIN, actual 1.0
  Our analysis targeted Henry’s touchdown equity, and he cleared the Over with 1.0 rushing TD. A clean cash in a volatile market.

• Zay Flowers (NFL) — Reception Yds Over: WIN, actual 118.0
  Flowers delivered a decisive Over with 118.0 receiving yards, comfortably surpassing the posted threshold we played.

• Saquon Barkley (NFL) — Receptions Under: WIN, actual 1.0
  Barkley stayed well under on volume, finishing at 1.0 reception. LineCrush’s models leaned Under on his pass-game role, and the result matched that read.

• Kyren Williams (NFL) — Rush Reception Yds Over: WIN, actual 147.0
  Williams combined rushing and receiving output for 147.0 yards, a strong Over that validated our confidence in his dual-threat workload.

• Tee Higgins (NFL) — Reception Yds Over 61.50: WIN, actual 157.0
  Higgins blew past 61.50 with 157.0 yards. This was one of the clearest Over results of the day.

Where We Missed

• Bo Nix (NFL) — Pass Completions Under 21.50: LOSS, actual 25.0
  We projected fewer completions; he finished at 25.0, over the 21.50 number. That’s a straight miss against our Under.

• Evan McPherson (NFL) — Field Goals Over: LOSS, actual 1.0
  We needed more made FGs; he landed on 1.0. The Over didn’t get there.

• Puka Nacua (NFL) — Reception Yds Under: LOSS, actual 125.0
  We played the Under, and Nacua reached 125.0 receiving yards. This one was decisively wrong.

• Rhamondre Stevenson (NFL) — Rush Yds Under: LOSS, actual 47.0
  Our Under did not cash here. He finished at 47.0 rushing yards, above what we needed for an Under.

• Jacoby Brissett (NFL) — Pass Completions Over: LOSS, actual 21.0
  We needed more volume. He ended at 21.0 completions, and the Over did not hit.

What It Means

• The portfolio finished 854-876 on the day, reflecting a mixed slate with strong NFL highlights but a net negative overall.
• Per sport, NFL volume dominated (633-661), with NHL (117-108) and WNBA (31-25) posting winning records, and MLB (73-82) coming in behind.
• The standout wins—Henry, Flowers, Barkley, Williams, and Higgins—showed our edges when game flows aligned. The misses—Nix, McPherson, Nacua, Stevenson, and Brissett—are recorded as losses without caveat.

Every pick above—and all 1,730 from October 04, 2026—is graded publicly by LineCrush, win or lose. If you tailed or faded, you can verify each result on our site exactly as listed here.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.