Player Prop Results for October 02, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

On October 02, 2026, LineCrush’s models went 96-115 across 211 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins, with several close calls and a mixed performance split by sport.

By the Numbers

• NHL: 73-73
• WNBA: 23-42

Biggest Wins

• Alex Ovechkin (NHL): Points Over 0.50 — WIN, actual: 1.0. Our analysis targeted a simple threshold: one point to cash, and he delivered exactly that, clearing the over.
• Jordan Staal (NHL): Assists Under — WIN, actual: 0.0. This was a clean under. Zero helpers kept this ticket safely home.
• J.T. Miller (NHL): Points Under — WIN, actual: 0.0. A full fade on the scoresheet was required and achieved, validating the under.
• JJ Peterka (NHL): Shots On Goal Over 1.50 — WIN, actual: 5.0. This one wasn’t close. Clearing the number by 3.5 shots is the kind of cushion we aim for on volume-based props.
• Paige Bueckers (WNBA): Assists Over 4.50 — WIN, actual: 6.0. She pushed past the number by 1.5 assists, a solid margin on a playmaker line.

Where We Missed

• Gabby Williams (WNBA): Points Over 19.50 — LOSS, actual: 19.0. We needed 20; she finished at 19. That’s a miss by a half-point, and it counts the same as any other loss.
• Jessica Shepard (WNBA): Assists Over 4.50 — LOSS, actual: 2.0. This never threatened. At 2.0, it ended well short of the required 5.
• Jordan Staal (NHL): Shots On Goal Under — LOSS, actual: 3.0. He landed on three shots, and that broke the under. No wiggle room.
• Mark Scheifele (NHL): Points Over 0.50 — LOSS, actual: 0.0. We projected a point; he was held off the scoresheet. The over did not get there.
• Beckett Sennecke (NHL): Shots On Goal Over 2.50 — LOSS, actual: 1.0. The volume wasn’t there. Finishing at one shot left this well short of the over.

Context matters, but results matter more. The NHL slate finished exactly even at 73-73, reflecting a day with both sharp reads and clean misses. The WNBA card ended 23-42, which weighed down the overall record. Some of the misses were decisive (like Shepard’s assists and Sennecke’s shots), while others were razor-thin (like Williams landing a half-point shy). On the win side, we saw both precision and cushion: Ovechkin’s single point cleared the bar, and Peterka’s five shots smashed his over.

We won’t dress it up: 96-115 is not the target. LineCrush’s models are designed to grind edges across a large volume of props, and on October 02, the ledger closed in the red. The job now is to incorporate what these outcomes tell us and keep pressing advantages where the data supports them.

Every pick listed here—and every pick we make—is graded publicly, win or lose. You can verify all outcomes on LineCrush, see the exact lines we played, and track performance transparently day after day.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.