Player Prop Results for October 01, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 232-228 on October 01, 2026, across 460 graded player props. That’s a winning day by a slim margin, with 232 wins and 228 losses, graded and posted in full. LineCrush’s models had standout edges in NFL and a tough slate in NHL and WNBA, while MLB landed slightly negative.

Bottom line: A narrow overall win, powered by NFL, with mixed results elsewhere.

By the Numbers

• NHL: 96-104
• NFL: 91-69
• MLB: 23-27
• WNBA: 22-28

NFL was the clear driver at 91-69, while NHL finished 96-104. MLB closed 23-27, and WNBA ended 22-28.

Biggest Wins

• A’ja Wilson (WNBA) — Points + Rebounds Over 39.50: WIN, actual 46.0
  Our analysis flagged the combined usage and volume, and Wilson cleared the number decisively. This was one of the day’s cleanest overs, finishing 6.5 above the line.

• Sophie Cunningham (WNBA) — Points Under 5.50: WIN, actual 5.0
  LineCrush’s models projected a tight under, and it landed by the hook. A narrow cash, but a win nonetheless at 5.0 against 5.50.

• Jaylen Warren (NFL) — Receptions Under: WIN, actual 3.0
  We were aligned with a lean to limited passing volume to the back, and Warren ended at 3.0 receptions to keep the Under intact.

• Connor McDavid (NHL) — Shots on Goal Under: WIN, actual 3.0
  A disciplined Under that held despite McDavid’s high baseline activity. The result stayed below the betting threshold we targeted.

• Aleksander Barkov (NHL) — Shots on Goal Under: WIN, actual 1.0
  Barkov’s shot volume came in muted, landing well beneath the target with just 1.0 SOG. A comfortable Under from start to finish.

These were representative of where our edges held: unders on NHL shot volume and select receiving props, and a high-usage over in A’ja Wilson that cleared with room.

Where We Missed

• Caitlin Clark (WNBA) — Points + Assists Over 32.50: LOSS, actual 22.0
  This missed by a wide margin. The usage didn’t translate to combined production, finishing 10.5 short of the number.

• Roman Wilson (NFL) — Receptions Under: LOSS, actual 3.0
  We needed fewer catches; he reached 3.0 and broke the Under. This is a straight miss against the receptions threshold we targeted.

• Deshaun Watson (NFL) — Rush Yards Over 28.50: LOSS, actual 22.0
  The expected ground output didn’t materialize. He finished 6.5 yards shy of the over, and this never found the late push we needed.

• Drake Baldwin (MLB) — Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS, actual 0.0
  No total bases. This one wasn’t close and underscores a soft day in MLB.

• Pat Freiermuth (NFL) — Receptions Over 3.50: LOSS, actual 3.0
  We needed four; he landed on three. A hook loss that sits plainly in the red.

Each of these misses counts the same as our wins, and we record them exactly as they occurred.

Final Word

Every pick we make is graded publicly, win or lose—no hiding and no retrofitting. Yesterday closed 232-228 across 460 props, with all outcomes visible on LineCrush. If you tailed, you saw the NFL strength and the volatility elsewhere; if you’re tracking, you’ll find every grade, timestamp, and result on the record.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.