Player Prop Results for September 28, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

Yesterday’s player prop picks finished 92-91-1 on September 28, 2026, across 184 graded props. That’s narrowly positive on volume with 92 wins, 91 losses, and 1 push. All action came from the NFL slate, and we’re laying out the exact results below so you can see where LineCrush’s models hit and where we missed.

By the Numbers

• NFL: 92-91-1

Biggest Wins

• Cole Kmet — Receptions Under: WIN, actual 0.0. This one cleared decisively. Our analysis projected limited involvement, and the result was a complete shutout in the box score, cashing the Under without a sweat.
• Will Shipley — Reception Yds Over: WIN, actual 11.0. The Over got there with 11 receiving yards. It wasn’t explosive, but it was enough to finish on the right side of the number.
• Jalen Hurts — Pass Interceptions Over 0.50: WIN, actual 1.0. We needed at least one pick to clear this Over, and Hurts threw exactly one, validating the position.
• Dontayvion Wicks — Receptions Under 3.50: WIN, actual 2.0. Usage stayed in check, landing comfortably under the 3.5 line with two catches.
• Colston Loveland — Reception Yds Under: WIN, actual 31.0. Yardage stayed beneath the posted number, and this Under landed cleanly. The outcome aligned with our view of constrained downfield production.

Where We Missed

• Kalif Raymond — Receptions Under 2.50: LOSS, actual 6.0. This was not close. Raymond finished with six catches, more than doubling the Under line and blowing past our expectation.
• Saquon Barkley — Rush Yds Under 75.50: LOSS, actual 82.0. Barkley topped the number, finishing seven and a half yards over the line. The Under didn’t get there.
• Jalen Hurts — Pass Yds Over 216.50: LOSS, actual 153.0. Hurts fell well short of the yardage target. Despite our Over position, he didn’t approach 217 passing yards.
• Johnny Mundt — Receptions Over: LOSS, actual 1.0. We needed more volume. Mundt ended with one catch, and the Over didn’t cash.
• Case Keenum — Pass Yds Under: LOSS, actual 247.0. Keenum exceeded the Under, finishing at 247 passing yards and pushing this pick into the loss column.

What this means for yesterday: it was a tight, grind-it-out slate with a slim edge overall. The highlights included a no-doubt Under on Cole Kmet’s receptions and a clean interceptions Over on Jalen Hurts. We also saw measured wins where the numbers lined up with role and usage, like Dontayvion Wicks staying beneath his receptions mark and Colston Loveland keeping yardage contained. On the other side, several calls were decisively wrong. Kalif Raymond’s six receptions turned an Under into a clear miss. Saquon Barkley pushed past his rushing line, and Hurts’ passing yards never threatened the Over we took. Johnny Mundt didn’t see enough targets, and Case Keenum threw for more than we projected.

Every pick listed above is graded publicly at LineCrush, win or lose. Our analysis stands on the record daily, and you can verify each outcome on our site. We’ll be back with fresh projections and the same transparent grading for the next slate.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.