Player Prop Results for September 27, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 754-839 on September 27, 2026, across 1,593 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins. LineCrush’s models will always show the full ledger so you can see exactly what hit and what didn’t.

By the Numbers

• NFL: 508-563
• MLB: 177-213
• WNBA: 69-63

Biggest Wins

• Mike Evans (NFL) — Reception Yds Under: WIN, actual 34.0. Our analysis was on the right side of a muted receiving output here. The Under cashed with room to spare given the 34.0 yards result.
• Patrick Mahomes (NFL) — Pass Yds Over: WIN, actual 246.0. LineCrush’s models backed Mahomes to clear the passing yardage bar, and 246.0 passing yards delivered the Over.
• Juan Soto (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under: WIN, actual 0.0. Soto was held without a base, and the Under graded cleanly at 0.0 total bases.
• Ty France (MLB) — Batter Hits Runs RBIs Over: WIN, actual 5.0. A productive line across the board pushed this Over home decisively at 5.0 combined.
• Zay Flowers (NFL) — Reception Yds Over: WIN, actual 84.0. Flowers turned opportunity into yards, and 84.0 receiving yards put the Over comfortably across.

Where We Missed

• Dalton Kincaid (NFL) — Reception Yds Over 56.50: LOSS, actual 38.0. This Over never threatened; 38.0 receiving yards fell short of the 56.50 target.
• Christian McCaffrey (NFL) — Rush Yds Under: LOSS, actual 75.0. We were against his ground production, and 75.0 rushing yards beat the Under.
• Marvin Harrison (NFL) — Receptions Under 2.50: LOSS, actual 3.0. The Under missed by a single catch; he hauled in 3.0 receptions and cleared 2.50.
• Alex Bregman (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under: LOSS, actual 11.0. This was far off; with 11.0 total bases, the Under was not close.
• Aaron Jones (NFL) — Rush Yds Under: LOSS, actual 58.0. We faded his rushing output, and 58.0 yards was enough to beat the Under.

What this means for September 27: it was a mixed slate with pockets of accuracy and several clear misses. NFL volume drove most of the action at 508-563, where we notched wins on players like Mike Evans and Zay Flowers while missing on Dalton Kincaid, Christian McCaffrey, Marvin Harrison, and Aaron Jones. MLB finished 177-213; we were sharp on Juan Soto’s Under and Ty France’s Over, but Alex Bregman’s surge to 11.0 total bases put an emphatic L on that Under. WNBA was the lone positive column at 69-63, a modest edge on a smaller set of plays.

If you were tailing specific props:

• Conservative, game-script-sensitive Unders paid on Evans and Soto.
• Targeted Overs with demonstrated roles hit on Mahomes, France, and Flowers.
• Our misses were unambiguous: Kincaid didn’t get to 56.50 receiving yards, McCaffrey and Jones outpaced their rushing Unders, Harrison caught the one pass above 2.50, and Bregman’s bat rendered the Under noncompetitive.

Every pick listed here is already graded publicly on LineCrush, win or lose. We show the record as it happened—no hiding and no spin—so you can evaluate our analysis day by day and decide what to follow next.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.