Player Prop Results for September 25, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 238-304 on September 25, 2026, across 542 graded player props. That’s a losing day, plain and simple. All action came from MLB, and while LineCrush’s models found some bright spots, the overall slate did not land in our favor.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 238-304

Biggest Wins

• Freddy Peralta — Pitcher Earned Runs Under 1.50: WIN (actual 0.0). Our analysis targeted Peralta’s run prevention, and he delivered a clean sheet. Anytime an earned runs under clears to zero, that’s a decisive hit on the handicap.
• Brice Turang — Batter Singles Over 0.50: WIN (actual 1.0). Turang cashed with exactly one single, validating the projection that he could poke one through rather than needing extra-base pop to get home.
• Oneil Cruz — Batter Singles Over 0.50: WIN (actual 1.0). Similar story to Turang: a contact-driven angle that required just one knock, and Cruz supplied it.
• Michael Conforto — Batter Hits Under: WIN (actual 0.0). Conforto was kept off the basepaths, and the under held cleanly. When an under on hits finishes at zero, there’s no ambiguity about the edge.
• Jacob DeGrom — Pitcher Outs Under: WIN (actual 12.0). The outs under landed well within range. With DeGrom limited to 12 outs, the number never came under late sweat, a straightforward under that matched our read.

Where We Missed

• Reid Detmers — Pitcher Outs Under 16.50: LOSS (actual 18.0). Detmers worked deeper than our number allowed, clearing 16.5 with 18 outs. That’s a direct miss on workload and efficiency.
• Brayan Bello — Pitcher Strikeouts Over: LOSS (actual 2.0). We projected more swing-and-miss than showed up. Bello finished with just two strikeouts, well short of an over position.
• Hunter Brown — Pitcher Strikeouts Over: LOSS (actual 4.0). Another strikeout over that didn’t materialize. Brown capped at four, and the ticket never threatened to cross the line.
• Shohei Ohtani — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS (actual 0.0). We needed multiple bases; Ohtani recorded none. That’s not a close call—this one was dead from the box score.
• Kyle Tucker — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS (actual 0.0). Same result as Ohtani: zero total bases on an over 1.50 is a flat miss. The bat didn’t show up for this number.

What this day tells us: even with a handful of clean reads—like Peralta’s run prevention, singles angles for Turang and Cruz, Conforto’s hits under, and DeGrom’s outs cap—the broader card underperformed. Strikeout overs on Bello and Brown failed to ignite, and marquee total-base overs on Ohtani and Tucker never got off the ground. There’s no hedging that reality: 238 wins and 304 losses is not up to our standard.

LineCrush’s models grade every pick publicly, win or lose. Yesterday’s results are posted in full so you can verify every number above, audit our performance, and track how the adjustments show up on the next slate.

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