Player Prop Results for September 16, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

Yesterday’s player prop picks finished 280-373 on September 16, 2026 — 653 graded props, with more losses than wins. That’s the full picture: LineCrush’s models had a down day, and we’re publishing every result openly so you can see exactly what hit and what didn’t.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 280-373 (653 total graded props)

All action yesterday was MLB-only, and the overall record reflects that single-sport slate.

Biggest Wins

LineCrush’s models still found sharp edges in several spots, particularly on unders for big-name bats and selective overs for contact-first plays:

• Miguel Rojas — Batter Total Bases Under: WIN, actual 0.0
  Our analysis targeted a low-total-bases profile, and Rojas finished with nothing on the ledger, cashing the under cleanly.

• Jeremy Peña — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: WIN, actual 4.0
  Peña cleared this by a wide margin, more than doubling the required threshold. When he’s collecting extra bases, this kind of over has room to spare.

• Anthony Volpe — Batter Hits Over 0.50: WIN, actual 2.0
  Needed one hit, got two. A straightforward over that came through with margin.

• Adley Rutschman — Batter Total Bases Under: WIN, actual 0.0
  Total suppression here — no bases recorded, which made the under a decisive win.

• Aaron Judge — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: WIN, actual 0.0
  Judge was kept completely off the bases, and the under 1.5 never sweated.

These wins highlight a common thread: when the model leans into unders against marquee bats or identifies buy spots on simple hit markets, it can look lopsided when the read is right.

Where We Missed

There’s no hedging here — several props went the other way, and they count just the same. Here are the notable misses from yesterday, plainly:

• Bryce Eldridge — Batter Hits Over: LOSS, actual 0.0
  We needed a single knock and didn’t get one.

• Nolan Arenado — Batter Total Bases Under: LOSS, actual 5.0
  This wasn’t close. Arenado piled up five total bases, comfortably busting the under.

• Freddie Freeman — Batter Hits Over: LOSS, actual 0.0
  Another over that required just one hit and came up empty.

• Jesús Sánchez — Batter Hits Over: LOSS, actual 0.0
  Same story — one hit would have done it, but it never landed.

• Zach Neto — Batter Hits Under 0.50: LOSS, actual 2.0
  We faded Neto for no hits and he produced two, a clear miss.

Each of these is graded as a loss without qualification. Whether it missed by a little (one hit short) or a lot (Arenado with five total bases on an under), it’s recorded exactly as it happened.

Final Word

This was a tough day: 280 wins, 373 losses across 653 MLB player props, all graded and published. If you’re tracking along, you can verify every pick — win or lose — because LineCrush’s models are evaluated in public, one result at a time. We’ll keep posting the full slate transparently so you always know where we hit, where we missed, and what the record truly is.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.