Player Prop Results for September 14, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

Yesterday’s player props finished 394-488 across 882 graded picks on September 14, 2026. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins, with every result graded and posted.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 252-314
• NFL: 142-174

Biggest Wins

Our analysis did hit on several clear edges that stood out among the 394 wins:

• Rashee Rice (NFL), Reception Yds Under — WIN, actual: 19.0
  LineCrush’s models identified a depressed target share scenario, and the Under cashed comfortably at 19.0 receiving yards.

• Courtland Sutton (NFL), Reception Yds Under — WIN, actual: 11.0
  Another receiving-yardage Under that never sweated late. The outcome landed well below typical market expectations at 11.0.

• Miguel Rojas (MLB), Batter Hits Under 0.50 — WIN, actual: 0.0
  A clean zero in the hit column validated the Under 0.50 approach, turning a binary prop into a decisive win.

• Teoscar Hernandez (MLB), Batter Total Bases Over 1.50 — WIN, actual: 4.0
  Over 1.5 total bases got there with room to spare. Four total bases delivered a no-doubt win.

• Pat Bryant (NFL), Receptions Over — WIN, actual: 4.0
  With 4.0 receptions, the Over cleared. The volume materialized, and the number got home.

Where We Missed

We also missed on several spots. No spin, no excuses—these lost:

• Casey Mize (MLB), Pitcher Earned Runs Over 2.50 — LOSS, actual: 2.0
  We needed 3+ earned; he allowed only 2.0. The Over never got there.

• Patrick Mahomes (NFL), Rush Yds Under 14.50 — LOSS, actual: 23.0
  The Under was wrong here. Mahomes finished at 23.0 rushing yards, clearing the 14.50 number.

• Bo Nix (NFL), Rush Yds Over — LOSS, actual: 2.0
  The Over did not materialize. At 2.0 rushing yards, this missed cleanly.

• Corbin Burnes (MLB), Pitcher Outs Under — LOSS, actual: 14.0
  We played the Under on outs recorded; he reached 14.0 outs, and the Under lost.

• Gavin Williams (MLB), Pitcher Strikeouts Over 7.50 — LOSS, actual: 7.0
  Needed 8+ strikeouts; he finished at 7.0. Hooked on the wrong side.

What It Means

• Volume cuts both ways. With 882 graded player props, variance shows up—on both the highlight reel and the lowlights. Yesterday, the ledger ended 394-488.
• The split by sport shows similar patterns: both MLB (252-314) and NFL (142-174) ended in the red on the day.
• There were bright spots. Rashee Rice and Courtland Sutton Unders, plus Teoscar Hernandez’s Over on total bases, were clean reads that converted as projected.
• And there were clear misses. The Mahomes rushing Under didn’t hold, the Mize earned runs Over came up short, and Gavin Williams’s strikeouts Over missed by one.

Radically honest and fully transparent: every pick above is graded exactly as it happened, win or lose.

Every LineCrush pick is graded publicly. You can verify each result—yesterday’s 394-488 included—directly on LineCrush, where our analysis and outcomes are posted in full.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.