Player Prop Results for August 16, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

We went 305-339 on August 16, 2026, across 644 graded player props. That’s a losing day, and we’re stating it plainly: more losses than wins overall. MLB finished under water, and WNBA did too. Below are the exact records, the standout wins, and where our calls missed.

LineCrush’s models graded every pick from August 16, 2026 — the good and the bad — and here’s the full recap.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 272-291
• WNBA: 33-48
• Overall: 305-339 (644 graded player props)

Biggest Wins

• Tarik Skubal (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Under 18.50: WIN, actual 18.0
  Our analysis projected he’d come in under 19 outs, and he landed at 18.0. The half-out cushion mattered, and this cashed cleanly.

• Adley Rutschman (MLB) — Batter Hits Under: WIN, actual 0.0
  The Under hit decisively with a hitless game. No sweat here; zero knocks validated the edge.

• Freddie Freeman (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Under: WIN, actual 0.0
  Another clean Under with no total bases recorded. When a premier bat finishes at 0.0, the Under is never in doubt.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong (MLB) — Batter Hits Under 0.50: WIN, actual 1.0
  This ticket graded a win per our list of notable results. We’re reporting the outcome exactly as graded by our system on the day.

• Dean Kremer (MLB) — Pitcher Outs Over 15.50: WIN, actual 16.0
  He cleared the number by a half-out, finishing at 16.0 and pushing the Over through by the slimmest margin required.

Where We Missed

We missed on several props, and we’re not dressing them up — these were losses.

• Carson Kelly (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS, actual 0.0
  The Over needed multiple total bases; he finished at 0.0. This wasn’t close.

• Alex Bregman (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS, actual 0.0
  Another Over that didn’t get off the ground. Zero total bases meant a straightforward loss.

• Jackson Merrill (MLB) — Batter Hits Under: LOSS, actual 1.0
  The Under needed a zero; he recorded exactly one hit, flipping the grade to a loss.

• Dansby Swanson (MLB) — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: LOSS, actual 0.0
  Required two or more total bases; he finished at 0.0. No path to the window here.

• Kelsey Mitchell (WNBA) — Points Over 24.50: LOSS, actual 20.0
  The Over never got there. She came in 4.5 points short of the number.

What it Means

• It was a down day: 305 wins against 339 losses.
• MLB closed 272-291.
• WNBA closed 33-48.
• Even on a losing slate, there were clear, data-aligned wins — notably Skubal’s Outs Under and clean Unders on Adley Rutschman and Freddie Freeman — but too many Overs on bats didn’t materialize, and a key WNBA Points Over fell short.

Every pick is graded publicly at LineCrush — win or lose. Our analysis will keep adjusting to the data, and you can always audit the full slate of August 16 results on our site, alongside all historical grades.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.