Player Prop Results for July 23, 2026: Graded Wins and Losses

Yesterday’s player prop picks went exactly break-even: 125-125 on July 23, 2026. That’s 250 graded props with as many losses as wins. No sugarcoating—our card landed right on .500.

LineCrush’s models grade every pick publicly, and July 23 produced a perfectly even split across a full MLB slate.

By the Numbers

• MLB: 125-125 (all 250 graded player props were MLB)

Biggest Wins

• Drake Baldwin — Batter Runs Scored Over: WIN, actual 1.0. Our analysis backed Baldwin to cross the plate at least once, and he did exactly that, clearing the Over with a single run scored.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Batter Total Bases Over: WIN, actual 2.0. Guerrero Jr. delivered enough pop to get over the number, finishing with two total bases.
• Jordan Walker — Batter Total Bases Over 1.50: WIN, actual 3.0. Walker comfortably beat the 1.50 mark, tallying three total bases and cashing the Over with room to spare.
• Michael McGreevy — Pitcher Outs Over 16.50: WIN, actual 19.0. McGreevy worked deep, recording 19 outs to surpass the 16.5 threshold, a solid out-getting performance that validated the Over.
• Nolan Arenado — Batter Hits Over 0.50: WIN, actual 2.0. Arenado recorded multiple knocks, clearing the 0.5 hits line with two base hits.

Where We Missed

• Travis Bazzana — Batter Stolen Bases Over 0.50: LOSS, actual 0.0. We needed a bag; it didn’t happen. Bazzana finished without a steal, and the Over did not come through.
• Troy Melton — Pitcher Strikeouts Over 5.50: LOSS, actual 5.0. Melton came up one strikeout short of the Over, finishing at five and missing the 5.5 line.
• Yandy Diaz — Batter Total Bases Over: LOSS, actual 1.0. Diaz ended at a single total base, not enough to clear the Over.
• Shane Bieber — Pitcher Strikeouts Over: LOSS, actual 3.0. The strikeout output wasn’t there. Bieber finished with three Ks, short of the Over.
• Corbin Carroll — Batter Total Bases Under 1.50: LOSS, actual 3.0. We backed the Under, but Carroll piled up three total bases, going well over 1.5 and handing this one an L.

What this means, plainly: on a day with 250 MLB props, our wins and losses were identical in count. The notable wins featured a mix of hitters clearing base and hit lines—Walker’s three total bases and Arenado’s two hits stood out—plus McGreevy’s 19 recorded outs powering an Over on pitcher outs. On the flip side, we missed on a few thin margins and clear misses alike. Melton’s five strikeouts fell just shy of 5.5, while Bieber’s three Ks were further off the pace. Our Under on Corbin Carroll didn’t hold as he reached three total bases, and the Bazzana stolen base Over didn’t materialize at all.

We won’t spin it: 125 wins and 125 losses is a straight push on volume. LineCrush’s models post every selection and grade them all, win or lose, so you can verify each result from July 23 and every other day on our public record.

Want the full breakdown? See today's picks and analysis at linecrush.com/picks.