MEM at NOP: Court Battle

The FedEx rivalry heads south as the Memphis Grizzlies visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday night, a late-November litmus test for two Western Conference clubs chasing early seeding and rhythm. Expect pace, physicality, and a healthy dose of star power in a matchup that has quietly become one of the conference’s most combustible tilts. With both teams capable of stringing together double-digit runs, the first quarter tone—and who controls the glass—could shape the night.

The Matchup

These teams mirror each other in critical ways: switchable wings, vertical rim threats, and primary creators who bend defenses. The swing factor? Half-court execution versus transition efficiency. Memphis typically leans into a bruising identity—second-chance points, paint touches, and deflections—while New Orleans thrives when it can get downhill early and spray to shooters.

• The Pelicans’ frontcourt physicality challenges Memphis’ interior, where the Grizzlies rely on activity and positioning to win margins.
• Perimeter containment will be pivotal: can Memphis stay in front without over-helping, and can New Orleans tag rollers without surrendering the corners?
• Bench minutes loom large—both teams have swing-lineups that can flip a quarter with defense-to-offense spurts.

What’s at stake is more than a single W. In a stacked West where tiebreakers matter, early-season head-to-heads carry extra weight. Stylistically, this is also a referendum on which team imposes its preferred possession chain: slower, physical grind vs. high-pace rim pressure.

Players to Watch

• Ja Morant (Grizzlies): The engine. His ability to puncture at the nail and manipulate weak-side tags will determine Memphis’ paint-to-threes ecosystem. Watch his mid-range floater; it’s the release valve if the rim is crowded.
• Zion Williamson (Pelicans): A rim-pressure giant. When he gets two feet in the paint early in the clock, rotations unravel. Memphis will try to build a wall; Zion’s reads to the dunker spot and slot shooters are the counter.
• Desmond Bane (Grizzlies): The swing shooter and secondary creator. If he punishes top-locks and hit-ahead threes, Memphis can win the math.
• Optional X-factor: CJ McCollum’s late-clock shotmaking against set defenses could blunt Memphis’ grind.

Key Stats

In recent meetings, the winner has averaged a double-digit edge in points in the paint, underscoring the interior battle as the decisive axis.

• Memphis’ offensive rebound rate underpins its scoring floor; when they crack 12+ second-chance points, their win probability jumps notably.
• New Orleans’ net rating spikes when Zion + shooters share the floor, particularly in lineups with a stretch five spacing the dunker spot.
• Turnover differential has decided multiple past matchups; both teams have posted top-10 live-ball turnover creation stretches, fueling quick 6–0 runs.
• Free throws as a barometer: the Pelicans’ best nights correlate with a high FT rate from rim pressure; Memphis needs to defend without fouling to stay out of penalty traps.

Prediction

This projects as a possession game defined by tempo and whistle. If Memphis controls the glass and keeps live-ball turnovers low, their half-court efficiency and Bane’s spacing gravity travel. But New Orleans at home, with Zion collapsing the lane and CJ organizing crunch-time possessions, tilts the margins toward the Pels—especially if they win the free-throw and transition battles.

Lean Pelicans in a tight, swingy contest where a late two-for-one and a couple of corner triples decide it. Expect both stars to clear impact thresholds, with bench defense for New Orleans nudging the fourth-quarter minutes. Final vibe: New Orleans by two possessions, in a game that lives in the paint and at the line.